KLCI 27.11.2012

Good Morning

The market seems to have a problem finding a meaningful bottom...and everyone wondering whether the 1600 level holds...

 At such times, sometimes it may be wise to take a step back ,reflect and consider your next move...should you cut loss buy the same at a lower price, or do a cost averaging exercise or switch to higher beta stocks (or theme stocks ) which may rebound faster or all too common "do nothing " strategy..There is really no right or wrong answer ,the choice is really up to an individual's risk profile for shares and financial position...That said, doing nothing is rarely the best strategy ...

Have a good day

Thank you

Chris Choo

chrischoo007@gmail.com

KLCI 26.11.2012

Good morning everyone..

As expected ,the market has started off on a listless note..and except for newie IPO HHH corp which has a done volume close to 90 m by 10 am and hence accounting for close to half the KLSE volume !

The market is otherwise in deep slumber...perhaps a round of golf may be a better option to occupy time at this point.. That said value investors may use this window to "study" counters which are under collection mode and such data may be extremely useful when the market returns.... 

Till then...happy trading

Chris Choo
chrischoo007@gmail.com

p/s: This Thursday 29.11.2012 8.00pm, I will be talking about Financial data how to read & how useful is it in your daily trading use.  As well I'll talking about profit taking & cutloss. If anyone interested, please be free to drop an email to express your interest.

Good morning everyone,

 When the market is like this ie in the doldrums, perhaps we should take some time to reflect on some relevant but pertinent issues..relating to share market of course.

 Lets tackle the often over rated tendency to rely on technical charts for trading...many subscribe to the belief that somehow a chart is like a crystal ball ,guiding your every move leading you in and out (depending on whether you are buying and selling ) and paving the way to greater glory or lesser misery ! For all that it is worth and I mean no disrespect to diehard followers one must never delegate the "heavy responsibilities " of responsible market reading/ prediction to merely charts or any other investment or trading technique in isolation...The onus will always fall back on hard work and that simply means lots of selective reading ,careful analysis of data , cross checking with sources and so on...Share trading or investing is never a guessing game...

 Has anyone ever wondered about supposedly "simple " questions like the following?

 a ) When do I sell ? ..always at a gain or at least at breakeven ?

 If your answer is either of the above , you are clearly not ready to trade nor invest and you may be better placed  at either the secured markets like time deposits or property market where chances of losing are very much reduced !

I will be speaking on understanding financial data ,how to use them as well a topic on when to take profits or cut losses next week to my forum members.

Anyone interested to learn or join my forum membership, please email me at chrischoo007@gmail.com

Thank you

Chris Choo

Good Morning

Another dreary day..sigh ! 

Do you know what is the greatest "fear" to active investors and traders around the world? As opposed to what some of us are conditioned to believe ,a lack luster quiet market is actually much worse than a falling market ....We like to believe when a market is "defensive " like ours we will lose less or better still our capital is well protected and intact....My friends ,that notion cannot be more wrong...Being defensive merely means the CI has a lesser swing compared to others ..but many forget our CI are made up of just 30 big stocks and a few big moves on certain heavily CI weighted stocks can bring the CI to breakeven or even positive in an otherwise listless or substantially down broad market. 

Worse still , in any upturn overseas ,we will again be left out as being relatively resilient we are again deemed expensive vis a vis regional markets. This vicious cycle has been on for so long ( 15 years ? ) and even more pronounced recently.

All is not lost though. It is just that trader be more realistic in his /her expectations. Sometime 2 bids gain may be considered a triumph nowadays.

Thank you

Chris Choo
chrischoo007@gmail.com

Good morning everyone

The market has yet to awake from its deep slumber and if the volume is an any indication ,we can expect another day of listless trading.
There do not seem to be follow through in most counters and one need to be extra cautious at this stage.
Watching at the sidelines for developments may be the best strategy at this point if not in position.

Thank you

Chris Choo
chrischoo007@gmail.com

Good morning everyone,

One of the "good features" of living in this country is the unusually large number of public holidays.
Someone remarked we have "twice " the number of days off compared most others.
Hows that ! Unfortunately this prolonged holidays may have affected market volumes..and coupled with weak sentiments all around the world with discouraging news from the US ,Europe and even China compounding the already weak sentiments.

On the local front some counters like Astro ,Perisai ( both with relatively strong positive announcements ) and Uem Land seem to hold up well against the weak backdrop n hopefully with better sentiments next week may help lead the broader market.

Happy Trading

Chris Choo
chrischoo007@gmail.com

Hello there 

Happy Deepavali to those celebrating the festival !

I just back from a long holidays ...tiring but truly enjoyable.

The market is still trading "sideways " ie trending down ,the main reason being the many holidays during this period...You will notice that most active counters would have lost one to half their normal daily trading volume, This phenomena gives rise to more contra players selling than fresh contra buying. The nett effect would be a easing of share prices on most counters ...only counter with specific "agenda ' will break this trend.

One should watch at the sidelines and wait for fresh impetus and renewed buying which may come about as the holidays period comes to an end..and a normal week resumes ie next week..

This is my opinion of the market. 

Thank you

Chris Choo

An opinion piece....

start with color red ( u know why... hahaha)

Sometimes when the market gets rough ,when all seems lost...you might want to be a contrarian....after all if a spring is compressed hard enough it is bound to "rebound" such as TM, Axiata ( blue chips rebounding may tell a story for tomorrow ...)

a) heavily beaten down counters which were active recently

b ) counters which are resting on long term support

c ) counters which seems to defy the broad market downtrend

d) counters which are rumoured to have secured big contracts

e ) counters which are experiencing heavy contra selling...

f ) etc etc....

Just like no share will go up forever ,the reverse is equally true.

Few in my forum came & met me for lunch. We discussed few stocks that in play that we could make quick profit in this bearish market. Taught them how to read pattern in this bearish market. They are all very excited in this new teaching. Pretty sure they would profited handsomely as I saw the closing as we predicted. 

Will be on holidays from tmrow till next tuesday...

Wishing all readers you happy trading and have a good weekend (long weekend )

Thank you

Chris Choo

chrischoo007@gmail.com

KLSE 08/11/2012

Good morning everyone,

Wish I could say something "nice" this morning but The Dow has plunged about 300 points or about 2.4 % ..there might be a knee jerk reaction but I doubt it will be serious as our market has been on a downtrend for awhile and the correlation is low anyway...For intraday players you might want to watch closely during early trade and try to catch counters that open with healthy volumes and positive price reversals after a few minutes...counters that close near the highs yesterday evenings may deserve a watch....

Have a good day

Thank you

Chris Choo

KLSE on 07/11/2012

Good morning everyone....

 Like yesterday, I don't think the market is going to have a broad rally ( at least in the malaysian context ...btw a rally in the local market may look "tepid" or quiet in the Hong Kong or korean context ! ) ...today...

 As a "compass" guide today Axiata which is a top ten volume counter will probably be a good guide for day traders....A sharp positive reversal

( which seems unlikely ) may give the necessary impetus for certain operators and market makers to move certain 2nd liners...without which we are gonna look for the usual needle in the haystack...

 To those who are new to the market ( our local market ) perhaps it may wise to sit back and observe the following "phenomena" on a daily basis....( generally with the occasional exceptions )

 a) counters closing at the day's high and is completely listless ( ie trade down and no volume ) the next day ! ( long white candle extinguished ! )

b ) high volume top 20 counters with no or single bid band throughout the day ...who makes the money ?

c ) counters that grow in volume and price despite denials of news ( as replied to UMAs )

d ) counters that have little volume but with steady price increase over a few days ( sheepishly or in cantonese "kwai kwai shee shee )

e ) counters that seems to hold at a steady positive (up over the previous day closing ) despite a weak market...

We will discuss this in our next talk among other topics.

Thank you

Chris Choo

My Opinion... 

Counters like Takaso, Gocean are momentum based counters ,TA may indicate

good entry points but players need to meet the following criteria...

a) awareness of trend trading techniques ( entry /exit points )

b) right trading psychology ( no sentimentalism towards price and fundamentals )

c ) time affordability ( eg preferably full time to take account of minute fluctuations )

A person to understand the full market mechanics before attempting such plays...with

practice and willingness to learn ,such trading can be highly profitable ...

Patience is a virtue..

if you have any questions on any stocks please drop a comment.

Thank you

Chris Choo

KLCI today 06/11/2012

An opinion piece...For education,not a buy or sell recommendation...

 Scenario 1 ..Initial capital...Rm 100,000

 Bought 20 lots of Astro at 2.75...ie Rm 55,000 ( exclude brokerage n other charges for simplicity )

Bought 10 lots of Astro at 2.67     .ie Rm 26700

Bought  5 lots og Astro at 2.62......ie Rm 13100

 Bought 2 lots of Astro  at 2.55.... ie Rm  5100

 Total investment cost...................Rm 99,900

Average purchase price.............RM 2.702.... ( under a common scenario where initial purchase consumes 50 % of capital )

Scenario 2.....Initial capital ...Rm 100,000

bght 36 lots of astro at 2.75...ie Rm 99000

Average investment cost .......Rm 2,750

Scenario 3...Initial capital ...Rm 100,000

bght 12 lots of astro at 2.75...Rm 33.000

bght 12 lots of astro at 2.67..  Rm32040

Intend to buy astro at 2.60 ( subject to mkt condition ) another 12 lots

If effected at 2.60 ,total investment cost is 96240 average price is 2.673

REMARKS.......Most retailers are in scenario 2...chances are you will fill panicky and frustrated...wanting to sell off and lick your wounds !

May not be the best decision as you have not taken into account the following.....

a) The counter has a big following and has many institutions who are caught just like you and are probably averaging their price

b) Fundamentals are intact and have strong branding

c ) being a high profile stock and being a giant IPO ,counter will be on radar and has strong ability to rebound strongly when broad

market recovers...

Scenario 3 is ideal and  gives an experienced trader an opportunity to profit in adverse conditions,"correct " a wrong entry point

and chance to look at ongoing trend to effect meaningful averaging.....Scenario 3 may miss out on powerful climbs from start but

the trade off is worth it ( unless and until a bull market takes over ! )

Thank you

Chris Choo

Today 05.11.2012

Almost all the time I come across players who allow rear to grip them once a big bet goes against them.. More often than not this fear phenomena is a result of overtrading ie buying beyond one's means and holding power...this "uneasy " fear factor feeds on itself and may sometimes result in irrational actions like selling off everything ( including good shares ) just to feel at ease again...It is this panic selling phenomena that a trained investor or player should avoid...question is how ? My thoughts are these...
A) Don't buy beyond one's comfort zone no matter how tempted you are for quick profits 
B) For speculative ( and hence normally poor quality ) stocks buy with an eye to sell almost immediately if it goes against you...the more you buy the quicker you should exit ,either way 
C) For quality stocks practise the art of cost averaging .possibly with wider bid spread for each entry level.
( provided you didnt use up all the funds from start ) ...A good stock will always rebound from its low ...it is a question of when , not whether it will or not, all unit trust and fund managers do that... 
D) resist the thought that by selling a good loss making stock ,you can hitch a ride on another stock ...chances are the one you are selling may rebound and the "exciting " stock you now buy may be under "distribution " pattern by operators...in which case you will suffer a double loss ! 
E) Be patient...Broad market forces cannot be controlled...relax and wait it out !

Join my forum for more insight how to maximize profit & minimize losses. Learn to minimize losses and make profitsin the share market through interactive educational daily postings. Members are able to review performance of previous trades and improve their trading skills.

Thank you

Chris Choo.