A breath of fresh air

As if the market has taken cue of the various complaints and "sighs' yesterday ,things are
looking much better today...Volume has doubled that of yesterday 's noon performance..All things
being equal everyone must be looking forward to a stellar year end closing .hopefully premised upon
a broader based window dressing exercise...

Some GLCs have moved with more aggression today and if this trend continues it will go a long way
to giving more confidence to other laggards to move along...Confidence among retailers is key to
a more robust market...Nobody likes to lose forever or sit on assets that give negative returns !

Keen market observers should be able to "catch" low premium call warrants and ride the upside in
line with the mother share...Seasoned players can sometimes make returns of close to 100% in a few
hours "work" literally ...returns which only  trading on futures can provide...on the other extreme it would
take something like 10 to 15 years ( even taking into account interest compounding ) to do the same with certain time deposits ...And that is what makes the stock market so different...

If and a big "if " the year end momentum continues it may be wise to search out yesteryear favorites for
a possible trading opportunity ..A sustained volume build up is normally a requisite to such possibility

And for more conservative investors sitting out ,an upward thrust can still mean increased paper gains or
reduced losses...not too bad either way...

Terminal Volume

Not so long ago I wrote about the recent drop in daily overall market volume and its
possible implications on share prices..Daily volumes of about 700 to 900 m shares were traded
then...that unfortunately have since dwindled to an even more worrisome 500 to 600 m shares
the last few sessions..a sure sign of a lack of interest and confidence in the share market...Again there
is no point debating the probable causes...a more fruitful discussion would be to do a brief analysis as to
the type and nature of the buyers and sellers in the current market and hopefully one can spot opportunities
for bottom fishing or scalping activities...

In a worst off scenario an extremely low volume can "stall " a market not unlike a plane in the air which
 has cut its airspeed too drastically ..but the market as it looks now does not seem remotely close to that
..fortunately...Conversely a low volume has its silver linings too ...as contra or short term players are substantially out ,there would be much reduced forced selling activities which can depress prices further...As
long as the forces of buying and selling are in equilibrium ie normally at strong support levels the prices would
hold..there might be temporary breaks below but they are usually mended in the following days...of course this pattern may not hold for shares which have heightened "play " or are been sold down due to undisclosed
negative development..Fundamentalists should take note of "equilibrium" levels as a possible entry point when the market shows signs of an uptrend...Chart readers would use this bottoming as a potential entry point as well.but caution is still key as depressed volumes and margin calls or uplifting of share moratoriums
can break long term supports just as easily...   

Lulls in market activities can enable sharp eyed observers to look for potential insider buying and selling as
well ...Bid patterns can highlight "unusual " buying or selling patterns which are sometimes not discernible
in charts..Small to significant profits can be made ...if the timing of entry or exit is correct...An early sell
action may also save precious capital from going down the drain...

That said ...many are still hoping for a partial window dressing exercise on the last trading day...

A Christmas blog

Needless to say most of us would have celebrated this very special day in a joyous
mood ....besides the exchange of pleasantries and presents some would have taken
the opportunity to rebuild or strengthen family ties and touch base with old friends.

To me ,Christmas in particular gives a very special aura...perhaps movies depicting
falling snow ,Santa going around the world spreading messages of hope and goodwill are
somehow ingrained upon me ever since I was a child and these powerful images make Christmas
different from other times of the year...

This year was no different ...My daughter surprised the whole family with her home made presents..
a culmination of 10 days of hard work in creating lovely and priceless gifts that in her opinion best
represents the liking of each family member ...like in my case ,she plastered an image of my all
time favourite singer in her creation...And I am convinced all parents out there would
be equally thrilled to receive such well conceived presents from their loved ones...

Some of us will have to begin tomorrow like any other working day ..and for those fortunate enough
to sleep in ..sweet dreams and happy holidays...

MERRY CHRISTMAS !

 No presents from Santa

Those expecting a pre Christmas push today must have been disappointed..the
gainers were mainly restricted to super blue chips with the broad market completely
lack lustre...in fact the overall volume was a meagre half a billion shares which must
rank as one of the lowest this year..If this trend continues after Christmas the laggard
stock prices might just recede further due to poor absorption of normal due date contra selling...
Still let us not feel dispirited ,instead we should just look forward to a better trading year in 2013..

Merry Christmas everyone..!

Getting it right...

As correctly guessed or speculated the world did not end and we are on safe ground ..
ready to embrace the new year with renewed vigour and conviction...

Now how nice would it be if we can as easily rightly speculate the movement of share prices..
so much headache and heartache will be avoided and everyone goes home happy...If only...

Other than the few privileged ones aka the "insiders" lesser mortals like the most of us will have
to resort to all types of trading and investment techniques to get it right .Countless hours are spent
learning and mastering the chosen technique or cocktail of techniques only to be frustrated at times
by unexpected turn of events...I personally know of many fundamentalist investors who have painstakingly
built up their share portfolios and just as they were about to realise their hard earned gains ,some unfortunate
events occurred which in some cases literally wiped out their paper gains...and everything went back to square one ...

There is really no fool proof method of getting it right all the time .The often advocated method of setting
a cut loss point can be counter productive if it is set too low or too high..Stock manipulators may guess your
game plan based on technical charts and easily flush you out unnecessarily.In addition some stocks are rather
illiquid and that can throw technical analysis readings off course...perhaps a more practical route would be
a methodology based on your own analysis of the chosen stock or stocks...If stock price movement is as
unpredictable as the weather itself why should one restrict himself to any one trading technique,one should not try to apply quantitative science to an art form...Quantitative prediction techniques including charts and various software applications are helpful tools but are far from being sufficient for real life trading...a serious
trader should incorporate subjective elements like the average human trading psychology .unexpected news
developments and many others to increase his chances of getting it right..simply put there is no short cut
...do your homework and leave the balance to fate...

Have a wonderful weekend..

End of the world day = Winter Solstice day ?

It is close to 8 pm now ..just  another  4 hours to go and all of us can breathe easy again !

A couple days ago my family had a lively debate about this "auspicious " day...throwing in exchanges
of the morbid ending of mankind to the beginning of a new chapter in life,,,I am sure similar exchanges like mine are echoed across  many families and  communities across the world...but I suspect at the end of the
day (pun intended ) we are all going to sleep well tonight and welcome tomorrow as always...

Speaking of exchanges ,my daughter has come out with a few..which seems rather ideal ,at least from her
viewpoint..The list includes the obvious like there is no more necessity to study ,no homework and worries about exams...
spend all her pocket money ,.empty her kiddy savings account...and for the dad and mum no more career
worries (which includes the share market ) ,family squabbles and financial pressures of any kind ..in short
spend all you have ...after all things are going to end anyway..and for once everyone is equal...
and the super rich can't buy themselves out like in the movie 2012 (a billion bucks to secure a seat in the
ark like ship )...and for once the poor would not feel handicapped in anyway !

To something more positive...Today by coincidence (or is it ?) is also the Tang Yuen ( in mandarin ) or
Tong Yuen ( cantonese ) festival..where colourful and sweetened flour balls are a must have...As a
child I used to watch my mum prepare these in a sugary solution ..though not exactly my cup of tea ,I know
of many including my wife who loves them especially those stuffed with nut paste  and the likes...

My warm wishes to all who are celebrating the Tang Yuen festival today..

When rumour is stronger than fact..

It amazes me sometimes that some shares get chased up sky high on unfounded
rumours ...when the buying momentum is so strong even die hard disbelievers can find it
hard to resist the urge to buy no matter how ridiculous the rumour may sound to the
critical mind...after all you begin to ask yourself ..how can so many be fooled into buying
in such large quantities...then again history has shown this phenomenon to happen time and
again...

That said, lots of traders and short term traders love a good story ....most do not
bother whether a change of ownership actually enhances share value ,they are more keen
to ride on the momentum before the music stops..Conversely this same group would not
even give a second look when factual news like improved results are announced...this value
enhancing news is normally deemed not "sexy" to the market..It would take a gigantic dividend
payment before the share price improves marginally...

All is fine with this rumour based chasing but what can be worrisome is that the rumour may be
"planned" to spread like wild fire and induce or lure innocent and naive retailers into the surging
shares only to be burnt severely after the denial...Millions can be made or lost within days
depending on which side of the fence you are sitting on....and obviously you would not want
to be on the wrong side...

If you not sure, perhaps it may better to be safe than sorry....